A classic niche sanity-check puts it plainly: your target group must be large enough to sustain you, easy to reach, and share common characteristics that lead to similar buying decisions. That simple triad is the spine of this playbook.

Why these three filters matter

They align strategy and execution. Size tells you whether your goals are even plausible. Reachability determines whether customer acquisition is economical. Cohesion predicts whether your messaging, pricing, and offer will resonate without endless customization.

They de-risk early moves. You can test each filter with modest research and small experiments before building full offerings or ramping spend.

They compound presence. Markets that are big enough, reachable, and behaviorally aligned generate higher reply rates, stronger referrals, and clearer social proof—all of which accelerate growth through low-cost channels like PR and content.

Filter 1: Size (enough to hit your goals, not the universe)

Big markets lure you into vague slides. Profitable niches force you into numbers that tie to cash flow.

Use a bottom-up model:

Define the buying universe: count the specific firms or people who fit your criteria, not “everyone who could possibly need this.” In B2B, start by defining the population precisely (job titles, firm size, geography); doing so is a prerequisite to sound research and go-to-market planning.
Estimate match rate: the percentage who truly feel the pain and are open to your approach.
Frequency: how often they buy in a year (or expansion potential).
ARPU/deal size: conservative, with an initial and expansion view.

Revenue potential ≈ Count × Match × Frequency × ARPU (× a cautious year-one penetration).

A vivid example of practical sizing is building from a known demographic pocket, then setting a concrete daily order target to sanity-check feasibility. One operator calculated a reachable online audience in the tens of millions based on a narrow trait (left-handedness), then set a modest daily order goal equating to just 0.4% of the immediate market—an approach that transforms fuzzy TAM dreams into tractable sales targets.

Two additional ways to validate size quickly:

Tailwind scan: Are you riding a multi-year growth sector? Growth can forgive smaller starting numbers if demand is compounding. Scan trade coverage, association stats, and supplier insights to spot expanding pockets and pick your spot within them.
Channel inventory: If a channel (e.g., a specific association list, conference, or marketplace category) has a stable, renewing base of your target buyers, that’s practical size—buyers you can actually touch this quarter.
Size red flags:

You can’t build a list of at least 1,000 well-qualified prospects within 30 days.
Your bottom-up math relies on heroic conversion or pricing assumptions to “work.”

Filter 2: Reachability (efficient contact, not theoretical access)

“Easy to reach” sounds obvious—until teams discover their “ideal customer” is scattered across channels with no reliable way to approach them. To pass the reachability filter, you need a low-friction path to attention at a reasonable cost.

Five reachability checks:

List availability: Can you ethically compile or acquire a clean prospect list (or two) for your segment via directories, trade associations, or subscriber databases? If not, you will pay in time or ad spend to cobble reach together. Practical sources include business directories, trade registers, association membership lists, and sector compendiums; libraries and research portals can be goldmines when used systematically.
Gathering points: Do they congregate in predictable places—trade shows, professional forums, specific publications? If you can name three with confidence, you’re probably reachable. Desk research methods—structured online searches, a written source list, and focused note-taking—keep you disciplined and out of rabbit holes.
Channel fit: Can you reach them effectively without burning budget on broad ads? In specialist markets, editorial PR and authority articles often outperform general advertising on cost and credibility—especially early on. Targeted ads in niche trade media can work, but you must track every response and scale only what proves out.
Partner paths: Are there complementary suppliers or distributors already trusted by your segment? Partners can collapse CAC and speed access; many high-performing niche plays piggyback on existing distribution or a single industry channel before expanding.
Credibility kit: Do you have the minimal set of materials (website, one-pager, press note, speaker bio) to turn attention into interest? A small, well-crafted kit raises response rates and enables you to show up in the channels your segment respects.

Reachability red flags:

You can’t name where 1,000 of your buyers spend time.
Your plan relies on unfocused advertising rather than precise channels.
Your early conversations end with “send me something” and you have nothing ready.

Filter 3: Cohesion (shared decision drivers, not just similar demographics)

Cohesion is the most underestimated filter. It’s not about superficial similarity; it’s about shared buying logic. A cohesive micro-market:

Responds to similar value propositions.
Navigates similar buying processes (stakeholders, approval paths).
Uses similar discovery channels (publications, peers, associations).

Shares language for their pains and outcomes.

In consumer and micro-vertical contexts, cohesion can be identity-driven (e.g., a specific enthusiast community) or context-driven (e.g., “restaurant owners of one cuisine who buy through a common distributor”). In B2B, practical cohesion patterns emerge when you segment decision-makers by attitudes and involvement level. One proven framework uses four attitudinal factors—Independence, Involvement, Identification, and Intensity—to segment SME buyers into types; a short question bank predicted segment membership with high accuracy and enabled more relevant communication and offers.

Cohesion discovery methods:

Conversation cluster test: Interview 8–12 buyers. If 70% use similar phrases to describe pains, constraints, and desired outcomes, you likely have cohesion. If the answers scatter widely, you do not.
Channel overlap: When most prospects read the same two trade journals, attend the same webinar series, or search the same phrases, your messaging can be highly targeted (and cheaper).
Buying path similarity: If deal cycles, approvers, and budget sources are consistent, your sales motion can become repeatable.
Offer acceptance cluster: Present two or three offer variants; if one spikes consistently in appeal, you’ve likely tapped a shared driver.

Cohesion in action:

Identity-led: A micro-brand built around a specific pet-owning subculture created products and language that perfectly fit that community—and found export demand almost immediately. The community’s shared identity delivered both high relevance and instant referrals.
Channel-led: A beverage that focused on a single restaurant category achieved presence far beyond its share of the overall beer market by specializing where competitors under-invested, using a narrow distribution wedge to become the default choice in that channel.

Cohesion red flags:

You keep rewriting your pitch for every meeting because no two buyers seem to care about the same thing.
The same channel yields wildly different response rates for indistinguishable prospects.

Putting the three filters to work: a 7-day field test

Day 1–2 (Size): Define the universe. Build a count of potential buyers from specific directories, association lists, and trade sources; draft a bottom-up revenue model with realistic match and conversion rates.
Day 3–4 (Reachability): Identify three channels with concentrated access (trade media, associations, events). Prepare a minimal credibility kit: website, 1-pager, case-style note, and a short speaker/topic list.
Day 5–7 (Cohesion): Conduct 8–12 short interviews; test three value props and two price anchors. Look for convergent language, consistent buying paths, and a clear winner message. Combine your questions to gather brand, pricing, and satisfaction drivers in one sitting—efficient, richer insight, fewer touches.

Go/No-Go thresholds

Size: Bottom-up year-one revenue potential meets or exceeds your immediate financial target with conservative assumptions.
Reachability: You can name and touch 1,000 qualified buyers through two reliable channels this quarter without a big ad budget.
Cohesion: 70% language overlap on pains/outcomes, similar buying paths, and one value proposition clearly outperforms others in tests.

Cool insight: Reachability often precedes size, and cohesion multiplies both

A smaller but tightly reachable group can out-earn a bigger, amorphous one because you convert contact into conversations and conversations into revenue with far less friction. Cohesion then acts as a force multiplier: when a group shares decision drivers, your message travels via editorial coverage, referrals, and partner endorsements far more efficiently than ads ever could. That’s why many successful specialist plays begin with a single channel wedge in a growth context—and only expand once proof compounds.

Common pitfalls (and fixes)

Confusing TAM with targetable size: Tie numbers to lists and channels you can actually reach this quarter, not theoretical universes.
Underestimating acquisition friction: If your plan lacks a specific route into communities, partners, and publications, it isn’t reachability—it’s hope. Build the route.
Over-segmenting before you have data: Start with two plausible micro-markets; let interviews and response rates reveal the right one. Combine research topics in early conversations to save time and get a fuller picture.
Mistaking “similar need” for “shared buying logic”: Validate decision paths, not just pains. Cohesion lives in how purchases are made, not just why they’re wanted.

A simple 30-day plan to choose and prove your niche

Week 1: Universe definition, bottom-up sizing, and channel mapping (lists, associations, media).
Week 2: Publish one authority piece and secure one small PR hit in a niche outlet; assemble your credibility kit to support outreach.
Week 3: Run a targeted outreach sprint (100 contacts) through two channels; test three messages and two price points; track every response path to see what truly works.
Week 4: Decide. If the triad is strong (size, reachability, cohesion all pass), concentrate resources; if one leg is weak, either refine the segment definition (tighten) or choose the next candidate.

The payoff

Pass the three filters and you’ll feel it: conversations get warmer, copy gets crisper, partners say yes faster, and referrals start happening without pushing. That’s what profitable niches feel like in the wild—big enough to matter, easy enough to touch, and similar enough to understand.